Stochastic SIRC epidemic model with time-delay for COVID-19

F. A. Rihan, H. J. Alsakaji, C. Rajivganthi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

42 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Environmental factors, such as humidity, precipitation, and temperature, have significant impacts on the spread of the new strain coronavirus COVID-19 to humans. In this paper, we use a stochastic epidemic SIRC model, with cross-immune class and time-delay in transmission terms, for the spread of COVID-19. We analyze the model and prove the existence and uniqueness of positive global solution. We deduce the basic reproduction number R0s for the stochastic model which is smaller than R of the corresponding deterministic model. Sufficient conditions that guarantee the existence of a unique ergodic stationary distribution, using the stochastic Lyapunov function, and conditions for the extinction of the disease are obtained. Our findings show that white noise plays an important part in controlling the spread of the disease; When the white noise is relatively large, the infectious diseases will become extinct; Re-infection and periodic outbreaks can occur due to the existence of feedback time-delay (or memory) in the transmission terms.

Original languageEnglish
Article number502
JournalAdvances in Difference Equations
Volume2020
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 1 2020

Keywords

  • Brownian motion
  • COVID-19
  • Cross-immunity
  • Extinction
  • Stationary distribution
  • Stochastic SIRC model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Analysis
  • Algebra and Number Theory
  • Applied Mathematics

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Stochastic SIRC epidemic model with time-delay for COVID-19'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this