Modeling the impact of unreported cases of the COVID-19 in the North African countries

Salih Djilali, Lahbib Benahmadi, Abdessamad Tridane, Khadija Niri

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

22 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this paper, we study a mathematical model investigating the impact of unreported cases of the COVID-19 in three North African countries: Algeria, Egypt, and Morocco. To understand how the population respects the restriction of population mobility implemented in each country, we use Google and Apple’s mobility reports. These mobility reports help to quantify the effect of the population movement restrictions on the evolution of the active infection cases. We also approximate the number of the population infected unreported, the proportion of those that need hospitalization, and estimate the end of the epidemic wave. Moreover, we use our model to estimate the second wave of the COVID-19 Algeria and Morocco and to project the end of the second wave. Finally, we suggest some additional measures that can be considered to reduce the burden of the COVID-19 and would lead to a second wave of the spread of the virus in these countries.

Original languageEnglish
Article number373
Pages (from-to)1-18
Number of pages18
JournalBiology
Volume9
Issue number11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2020

Keywords

  • Basic reproduction number
  • COVID-19
  • Hospitalized individuals
  • Lockdown
  • Unreported cases

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)

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