Modeling the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in a population with asymptomatic and symptomatic infected individuals and vaccination

Tahir Khan, Roman Ullah, Gul Zaman, Youssef El Khatib

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 virus remains a pressing issue with unpredictable characteristics. The pandemic has spread worldwide through human interactions. Since the nature of the disease differs everywhere and it has a stochastic effect, we therefore develop a stochastic mathematical model to investigate its temporal dynamics. Asymptomatic individuals have a major effect on the spreading dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus therefore, we divide the total population into susceptible, asymptomatic, symptomatic, and recovered groups. Multiple vaccinations have commenced across the globe. In this study, we assume that the vaccine confers permanent immunity. Moreover, due to the unpredictable characteristics of the disease random fluctuations are assumed in every population group. Using this model we show the existence and uniqueness of positive solutions to the proposed problem.Wealso discuss the disease extinction and persistence in the model to depict how contagious diseases can be eliminated from the community.Weuse the real data of SARS-CoV-2 virus, reported in Oman from the 1st January 2021 to 23rd May 2021 to parameterize the model.Wethen perform large-scale computational analysis to show the numerical simulation and verify the analytical findings.

Original languageEnglish
Article number104009
JournalPhysica Scripta
Volume96
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2021

Keywords

  • Existence and uniqueness
  • Extinction and persistence
  • Numerical simulation
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Stochastic mathematical model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atomic and Molecular Physics, and Optics
  • Mathematical Physics
  • Condensed Matter Physics
  • Physics and Astronomy(all)

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