A Bayesian modelling framework to estimate Campylobacter prevalence and culture methods sensitivity: Application to a chicken meat survey in Belgium

I. Habib, I. Sampers, M. Uyttendaele, L. De Zutter, D. Berkvens

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

29 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Aims: To estimate the true prevalence of Campylobacter and the diagnostic sensitivity of routine detection methods by applying a Bayesian modelling approach. Methods and Results: Results from a Belgium-wide survey of Campylobacter contamination in chicken meat preparations (n = 656 samples) showed that Campylobacter was detected in 24.2% of the samples by enrichment, compared with 41% detected by direct plating. Combining positive results from both methods increased the apparent prevalence to 48.02%. Bayesian model was set up in WinBUGS software, the model estimates Campylobacter prevalence as 60% (95% Credibility interval (CI): 47-82%), and the sensitivity of enrichment culture and direct plating as 41% (95% CI: 31-52%) and 69% (95% CI: 50-85%), respectively. Conclusions: The parallel use of direct plating and enrichment culture adds value for Campylobacter detection from chicken meat preparations, but the false-negative results from each culture method must be taken into account. Significance and Impact of the Study: Monitoring data could be strongly biased by the microbiological techniques used to generate it. To circumvent this bias, we describe an applied Bayesian framework for better interpretation of Campylobacter survey data in view of the imperfect test characteristics of routine culture methods.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2002-2008
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of Applied Microbiology
Volume105
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2008
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Bayesian
  • Belgium
  • Campylobacter
  • Chicken meat preparations
  • Method bias
  • Prevalence
  • Survey data

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Biotechnology
  • Applied Microbiology and Biotechnology

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